The Power of the Area Study

As the tragedy unfolds in Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii, I ask you to pray for some miracles. There is tremendous loss of life and horrific property damage. We could use a miracle here.

As usual, we can use the event to learn. This event really highlighted why you need to do an area study RIGHT NOW to develop your emergency plans.

The prudent see danger and take refuge,
    but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.

Proverbs 22:3

Looking at the photo above, I can tell you why there was so much loss of life. The map shows only 3 high speed routes out of Lahaina. An area study would expose this risk and cause you to seek out alternate routes out. What if the fire was to the south and thus blocking 2 of the 3 exits? Traffic would be at a standstill on the northern route due to traffic.

This is a tough situation all the way around. To the east, you have rough mountains. To the west is the vast Pacific Ocean. To the north and south you have roads through rugged terrain. A serious study would show that your routes out need to be on secondary roads through rough country to avoid the traffic snarls.

In his excellent book, The Area Intelligence Handbook, Mike Shelby talks about listing your risks on a matrix. Let’s be honest, using Mike’s matrix the combination of a High Impact/Low Probability event is the very definition of what happened here, a wildfire just as a Hurricane (Dora) approached. While it’s unlikely, it is indeed a threat that you would have put in your study and since it was High Impact, you’d need a plan to deal with it.

Hundreds of people were forced to flee into the water as the 86 mile an hour wind carried the firestorm through the town in minutes. This brings us to a point I make in my soon-to-be-released TW-05 First Aid Handbook: You cannot consider yourself preparedness-minded if you cannot swim and swim well. You need to spend time developing and refreshing your swimming skills. I don’t understand how guys will go to the range every single weekend, but don’t know how to swim. They’ll practice room clearing, but not first aid.

Be honest, the vast majority of people have never, nor will they ever, got into a gunfight. But literally everyone has fallen down and hurt themselves and nearly everyone has fallen into or had to cross a body of water. Practice what you will really need.

This event came on suddenly and a lot of people were caught without even basic supplies. A Get Home Bag like I cover in TW-01 (Baseline Training Manual) can go a long way. Also – what do I always say? WHERE IS YOUR FIRST AID KIT? Have one and carry it with you everywhere. A small kit and be kept in your backpack or purse every day.

With a few hours, all cell phone service in the area went out due to the destruction of backup generators and towers, and landlines also suffered. Having a communications plan already in place AND CARRYING A RADIO would certainly have helped.

On that note, the Coast Guard had a lot of issues trying to find everyone who fled into the water. A lot of folks in the preparedness world suggest not programming Marine VHF frequencies into your radios, but if you live near a large body of water like the Pacific or the Great Lakes, I recommend at least programming in Marine Channel 16, the distress calling channel that is monitored by the US Coast Guard. A SLNT Faraday Dry Bag can protect your radio from water until you are ready to make a call for help.

In my car, I keep a couple of items that could have helped here. First, I keep a fire extinguisher. Simple, right? The next item took a little more thinking, but it’s a FIRE BLANKET. This is a fire-resistant blanket that you can wrap around yourself if you find yourself surrounded by fire. It will allow you to walk out of the fire zone far better protected. Click the photo for an affiliate link (I may make a small commission if you buy one).

This was a horrible tragedy, but some prior planning could help you survive a similar event in the future. Get your area study done and consider what you would do should a fire suddenly erupt. If you are new here, go through the archives and the story of our Canadian friend who just went through something similar recently and learn from his experience.

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Since they heard the sound of the trumpet but did not heed the warning, their blood will be on their own head. If they had heeded the warning, they would have saved themselves.

Ezekiel 33:5

Be safe and PREPARE.