When I first joined Twitter, some guy named Mark Sibley was promoting his novel, Mongol Moon. I had no idea who he was, but the book summary seemed interesting, so I bought it. I was so moved by the scenario the book presents that I began engaging with Mark, and now I consider him a friend and mentor (even if he hasn’t finished the sequel).
The book presents such a realistic and plausible scenario that I thought we should discuss it, since we are about a week away from Christmas Eve, which is significant in the context of the book. I’ll try to avoid major spoilers, but some minor ones are necessary to illustrate my point and tell you what should make you pay attention.
First, the book involves a conspiracy and joint attack against the US by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Man, does that ring true or what? We see Russia and China holding joint defense drills in the Pacific, we know the DPRK is a client state of China, and Iran has long been a client state of both.
The book describes the method of infiltration that China uses to get its invasion forces into the US, and it’s not very dramatic; in fact, it’s genius and PLAUSIBLE. Sibley explains that massive numbers of fighting-age Chinese are ALREADY here. He points out that 1.7 million Chinese visit the US every year. How hard would it be to insert Special Operations teams posing as vacationers?
It’s an interesting point, because Mark Greaney, the author of the Gray Man series, used the same scenario in a book titled “Red Metal”. In Red Metal, a Russian Spetznaz team inserts into Djibouti as a hiking group, and others cross into Europe as skiers.
In addition to the 1.7 million visitors, millions more illegal immigrant Chinese live along the Pacific Coast. What are the odds that some of these are military or intelligence types?
The pre-inserted Chinese begin meeting with long-time resident Chinese who are loyal to CCP. They rent out storage units and stock them with ammunition and food, to provide re-supply points for the Special Operations teams.
The forces begin their attack on Christmas Eve, when Western military watch centers are staffed at their lowest alert level. This concept is also rooted in historical fact. Russia, in her 1979 invasion of Afghanistan, also struck on Christmas Eve. This wasn’t because of Afghanistan’s alert levels, they were still a Muslim country. It was because it would take Western nations a lot longer to respond, since watch centers were under-manned and sneior staff were home or on vacation.
Russia took advantage of the Olympic Opening Ceremony to strike Georgia in 2008 and the Olympic Closing Ceremony in 2014 to take the Crimea.
Not only are we closing in on Christmas Eve, but we also are nearing beginning of the 2022 Winter Olympics, but I doubt Russia will wait until late February. Russia’s biggest advantage is her historical ability to fight in winter, better than anyone else (except apparently the Finnish). I don’t see Vladimir Putin, with his keen sense of history, waiting out hit best fighting month (January), but I digress. On a side note, Sibley gives a hat tip to the Finnish ability to fight Russians, but you’ll have to get the book to find out.
In the book, China and her allies know that they can’t handle America in a conventional fight, so the attack begins with an EMP strike from satellite-based weapons. They followed up with selected nuclear strikes and small-unit ground operations.
The book describes concrete actions taken by divergent groups of characters but spells out the absolute chaos an EMP over the US and another over Europe would cause. Reading the book will help plot out a course action or at the very least, help you understand why you should take action.
The book illustrates how quickly law and order would break down if the power suddenly went out across the entirety of Western Civilization at the same time. I frequently point out that in the cities, the average house has about 48 hours’ worth of food supplies, because it’s just too convenient to go shopping every couple of days. What would happen if that was suddenly no longer an option? Rioting and unrest would happen within hours.
Another thing the book points out is the vulnerability of our ports. Not only are hidden cargoes in containers discussed, but a Chinese honeypot spy operation is employed against a Customs Inspector (unlike the real-life honeypot employed against US Rep Swalwell) to facilitate bringing in containers with weapons. If Mark Sibley can see the potential risk, the MSS can too. I’ll point out that a rush to clear backlogged ports will lead to hasty and less-thorough inspections of containers.
We would also do well to remember that last Christmas Day, we had a terror attack in the center of our Nation (literally) in downtown Nashville, and no one batted an eye. Everyone just seemed to accept the official story that some random dude built an EFP to take out the ATT trunk lines for no reason. I maintain that it was a successful “proof of concept” attack.
There’s a piece of Tactical Wisdom that applies here:
The prudent see danger and take refuge,
but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.
Heed the danger, and raise your awareness, we are in a very dangerous time. We’ve never been this close a major European land war in our lifetime. At the same time, we are very close to a ground war in the Pacific.
Here at home, should the lights go out, the Cold Civil War will almost immediately turn hot. Simmering racial and political disputes will suddenly become causes for violent action.
In summary, buy the book, if you haven’t already, to learn about the potential of the attack happening, and a glimpse at life in the immediate aftermath. It will be far worse than you can imagine.
After reading this, do us all a favor and drop Mark a note (@mnsibley on Twitter), telling him to finish the sequel.
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