Normalcy Bias is a killer. No matter how bad things get, most people think that “it” can never happen here. The entire world is devolving into civil war or open conflict, yet folks in the West, and the US in particular, just believe that those are problems for “over there where those people live”.
Now, Ukraine opened a few eyes. Rather than seeing “other” people and exotic locations in conflict, suddenly we saw a war with Europeans getting wounded and killed, and there were McDonalds and Starbucks stores in the background. A shopping mall just like one in every city in America was struck early on. It was an eye opener, for about 3 weeks.
Then, what always happens, happened. When the war didn’t spiral out of control, everyone moved it to the back of their mind, where it’s an abstract idea of numbers. We talk casualties, money spent, and abstract ideas, but the nonstop coverage of neighborhoods like ours vanished from the media, because they’d prefer you not think that way. The stopped the war porn, because they want the war to keep going.
…then if anyone hears the trumpet but does not heed the warning and the sword comes and takes their life, their blood will be on their own head.
Here, and over on the Council on Future Conflict, we’ve been trying to warn people that this is going to expand, along with the high potential for civil conflict within the US. I keep pointing out that we are on the verge of both a world war (which will be a collection of civil wars) and a Balkans-type conflict here, but everyone kind of nods and rolls their eyes, thinking “that could never happen here”.
Let’s do a thought experiment to expose that fallacy. Prior to March of 2020, would you have ever thought that the Governors of the United States would order you to stay in your homes and order nearly all businesses closed for most of a year? Take it a step further: Would you have ever imagined that we’d largely comply? I know, a bunch of you are going to say “BUT NOT IN MY COUNTY”….that’s not the point. It DID indeed happen.
Just this week alone, we are seeing Brazil, the 5th largest country in the world and 8th largest economy (largest exporter of beef, BTW) nearing a civil war over a contested election. We still don’t have results in the AZ Governor’s race nearly a month after the election. China is devolving into widespread rioting, as is Iran. The Netherlands has riots and is forcing 3000 farms to close (largest food supplier in Europe). The cake topper though: On Monday, NATO told Ukraine that the door to membership was open, which is a big red line for Russia. Tension is so high that Poland’s defense minister has said that the war will spread to Poland, which will involve us all.
So what, a lot of folks say. They say that we’ve had two world wars and they never impacted the US homeland. That will not be true in the next one. Extremely long range and hyper-accurate weapons mean that the US is indeed at risk. We are so reliant upon electricity and technology here that striking our electrical grid or cyber networks is pretty attractive target. If I was a strongman looking to make a move and the US is what holds me back, I’d be tempted to drop the grid in the US and make the US deploy her troops to maintain internal order rather than getting in the way of my plans. That, friends, is a REAL risk. If a guy like me figured it out sitting at his kitchen island while watching The Forbidden Kingdom, you can bet the world’s bad guys have figured it out.
Civil conflict in the US is actually getting worse, despite the decrease in actual riots. There is open talk of civil war on both sides. This morning, exactly as I predicted, the DHS has warned once again of the threat of domestic extremism. They mentioned attacks on Christmas events (without mentioning the words Black Hebrew Israelite), attacks on Jewish events (again, implying right wing, but the risk is BHI), and attacks related to the January 6th anniversary, which is not an actual threat.
The prudent see danger and take refuge,
but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.
All of this is building to high risk, but most people in America are just going about their lives with no thought towards preparation.
This is not hyperbole; we are on the verge of World War 3. More importantly, not a single one of the world’s powers is trying to do anything to forestall it. In fact, they seem to be doing everything they can do to accelerate the timeline. Remember all the war talk when the Ukraine fired two missiles into Poland? It’s gotten MORE tense sense then.
Friends, I urge you to take this all seriously. Make sure that your food storage and heating are taken care of. We have US utilities and energy suppliers warning of blackouts and unavailability of heating fuels as we approach the coldest time of the year. The food situation continues to get worse and a civil war in Brazil, where we get our fresh produce from in winter, will make that worse yet.
Once you’ve got food and heating handled, work on security. We work on security by developing networks, meeting like-minded folks (no, not everyone is a Fed), and training. Start walking distances carrying a load. Start acclimating yourselves to cold weather and switch your gear to cold weather gear.
The biggest thing you need to do is get over the normalcy bias and start gathering information. Update your Area Study (check out Mike Shelby’s new book here). Check out all your routes out of the area from home and work. Train walking with your Get Home Bag (yes, even in the cold and snow). Identify and track your local protest groups and agitators. Study the local police crime maps.
Friends, understand the risk and work to be more aware.
On a side note, we are hammering away on the First Aid Manual (TW-05). As a reminder, Tactical Wisdom books make great Christmas gifts. To get them on time, order from Amazon. Also, check our friend Brooke’s new merchandise store (click here)
Also, NC Scout has published The Guerilla’s Guide to the Baofeng, which will soon be available on his site. Pick up a copy, it will be worth it.
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