Indicators & Escalations

Earlier today, I did a Bible reading for a book study I’m doing with a few other men, since Governor Whitmer still says we can’t go to church (the liquor store is cool, though).  When I read Paul’s words, it was like I was listening to myself:

So be on your guard!

Remember that for 3 years I never stopped

Warning each of you night & day…

Acts 20:31

I’ve been warning people, telling people to pay attention, and yet people are still saying “it’ll just blow over” or…”That’s only happening in Portland”.

This weekend we saw a serious escalation from the left, and there was an indicator a few others & I have been looking for as a sign of increased violence & potential civil war.  That indicator was an increase in firearms use by the left.

Two of those situations involved people trapped inside road blockages.  I have told you before, never stop inside a protest.  Video from the Aurora protest showed protestors trying to remove people from their cars forcibly, and one car tried to drive off.  One member of the crowd opened fire on that vehicle, striking two of his fellow protestors.

In Austin, a man with an AK type rifle, Garrett Foster, rushed up to a car trying to drive through the crowd and raised his rifle.  He was shot and killed by the driver of the vehicle.

This is an indicator of an increase in the potential for full-scale armed conflict.

What is an “indicator”?  Indicators are things to look for that point toward a particular likelihood or outcome.  For example, if you see someone quickly look both ways in a store aisle, just before picking up an item, it’s an indicator that the individual might be stealing.  If you see a car traveling slowly through a neighbor, it’s suspicious, but if it has a pizza restaurant sign on the roof, it’s an indicator that someone is looking to deliver a pizza to an unfamiliar address.

How can we use indicators in the current situation?  I’ve tried to show you already.  Here are a couple more.

If you see a group of people arrive for a “protest” wearing respirator masks, goggles, and helmets, it’s an indicator that they are prepared to do violence.

If you see someone at the grocery store with steaks, charcoal, and a six pack, it’s an indicator that he’s going to grill for dinner and is not a threat.

If you see someone pouring gasoline into mason jars with a stack of rags and lids next them, they are about to start bombing people.

Indicators are nothing more than pieces of data that help you make an educated guess.

As far as indicators of potential civil conflict, one main indicator was, as I pointed out, to see more of the ANTIFA people arriving armed.

Here in Metro Detroit, they originally carried concealed firearms, but have recently begun open carrying and they’ve recently began wearing overt body armor.  These are indicators that they are willing to escalate the violence into a literal street battle.  

I know, many of you will say “Oh that guy is just LARPing” or “they’re just putting on a show”…but imagine a scenario for me…This weekend, we saw the NFAC set up and gather their arms again, and they had a negligent discharge that struck 3 of their own people.  What do you suppose would have happened if instead of their own people, those accidental rounds struck militia members?

We would have had the bloodiest street battle since Fallujah in Louisville, and it would have touched off street gun battles across the nation within hours.

Do you really think, in the current climate, that control could have been regained quickly and with minimal loss of life?  No.  It would also have set up a series of escalating retaliations.

The terrorist formerly known as Garrett Foster

Does fake news play a part in all of this?  Absolutely.  They are currently pushing the false narrative that Garrett Foster wasn’t being aggressive and that the driver just shot him, despite photographic evidence to the contrary. 

Even God’s Tactical Handbook warns about Fake News:

Even from your own number men will arise

& distort the truth in order to draw away disciples…

Acts 20:30

Indicators help you fight the propaganda of fake news.  Take the news story and compare it to indicators.  They claim that the driver was accelerating into the crowd.  Is it possible for someone to accelerate into a crowd, while firing over their shoulder and hitting their target more than once, and the car still be sitting still in the photo?  NO.  

The fact that the photo (shown above) shows the vehicle sitting still, with the brakes applied, and Fosters shoulders and elbows above a normal position ( see red box) all are indicators that Foster was the aggressor.

An additional indicator from this is that the CNN story claims that all witnesses said the vehicle accelerated wildly into the crowd while firing.  An indicator that would prove that true would be injured pedestrians being hit by the vehicle and additional people besides Foster having been shot.  None of that happens to be the case, so they are indicators that the story is UNTRUE.

We all use indicators throughout our day, we just don’t think of them that way.  For example, whenever you approach a person you know, you look them over and immediately assess their mood, based upon their outward indicators.  Why do this only with people you know and want to interact with.  I am more likely to assess everyone, especially those I DON’T want to interact with, at the very least to see if they are assessing me.

Gathering indicators is nothing more than observing what is going on around you and taking a very short pause to make an educated guess about what is most likely happening now, and what is likely to happen in the next few minutes.

Let me give you an example to illustrate the usefulness of this.  You arrive at the 7-11 because you need to pick up some ice.  As you pull in, there is a dark colored Impala with tinted windows backed into the last space, away from the windows.  As you park, two men get out of the car, look around, and put up their hoods before entering the store and splitting up.  What is going on now?  What is most likely to happen in the next few minutes?  Could you be wrong?  Sure.  Is it worth the risk?  No.

A few seconds spent analyzing indicators can literally save your life.

As we enter a world where police are no longer engaging and the crowd is allowed to run rampant, you will be your own first responder.

I’ll leave you with one last reminder from Acts:

Keep watch over yourselves

Acts 20:28a

The person responsible for your safety and security is YOU.

Be safe….Be alert.

Published by JD

I'm a defensive firearms and martial arts instructor, as well as a professional security & loss prevention consultant. I train people on how to defend themselves, their workplaces, and homes, as well as how to be prepared & aware. I offer corporate active shooter defense training as well.

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