Normalcy Bias & Awareness

A few days ago, I posted my Indications & Warnings article, discussing the high potential for civil disorder and conflict within the United States.  In it, I pointed out that the ultimate goal of the left was to increase violence to the point an emergency is declared, so that they can set aside the Constitution to implement far left policies and eventually rewrite the Constitution.  I also shared a document where they state that they have no intention of allowing an election to decide the course of this nation.

Let me share with you a few general responses to that article:

  1. They can’t do that, it’s unconstitutional.
  2. We need to wait and see what the election brings.
  3. LOL, they don’t like guns so we’ll win.
  4. They’re amateurs, we’re not.

These response are EXACTLY the kind of normalcy bias I warned about a couple of weeks ago, and we’re going to revisit the concept today, along with discussing awareness.  


That’s not hyperbole.  That’s not exaggeration.

First, let’s address the comments.

“They can’t do that, it’s unconstitutional”

The left despises the US Constitution.  They think it doesn’t go far enough to limit speech they don’t like, they hate the right of people they disagree with having weapons, they hate our entire system of limited government.

Barack Hussein Obama himself once said in an interview that there were many changes he wanted to implement, but the Constitution limited his power.

Can we just agree that people who hate the Constitution aren’t real concerned with the Constitutionality of their actions?  They’re literally burning down buildings and shooting at people; the Constitution is the least of their worries.

“We need to wait and see what the election brings”

They are literally admitting that they aren’t going to accept the results and don’t want either party.  

What good do you think an election will do?

More importantly, let’s say Trump wins.  Do you think they’ll suddenly become reasonable, shrug their shoulders, and accept defeat?  OR will they get even more violent and take action to remove him?

Let’s say Trump loses.  Do you believe that the majority of Donald Trump’s supporters will just shrug their shoulders and say “Shucks, I guess Biden and Harris were the better choice… maybe next time”?  Not very likely.  What’s more likely is claims of a stolen election and violence.

My point is, regardless of the side you support, the day after the election is filled with risk of violence and it only goes up from there.  We are beyond a point of reconciliation in this country, so stop acting like we aren’t.

“LOL, they don’t like guns so we’ll win”

Really?  Read my blog.  Watch their live streams. Watch the news.  The left is buying guns in record numbers to arm themselves for violent conflict.  They’re out there every day, carrying long guns, conducting their own local patrolling around their protests, practicing securing objectives.  

Make no mistake, they are training for an armed revolution.

We are underestimating them.

“They’re amateurs, we’re not”

First, no, the vast majority of our side are not professionals. Most are amateurs as well.  Even most “militia” groups consist of people with no actual military training (sorry, Militia friends).

Second, the Viet Cong weren’t professionals, how did they do?  Afghanistan is full of illiterate farmers…how are they doing?

Stop underestimating them, the left is FAR MORE DEDICATED to their cause than we appear to be.

Now, let’s turn to what we can do.

For the waywardness of the simple will kill them,

And the complacency of fools will destroy them.

Proverbs 1:32

Here, Good King Solomon was warning against normalcy bias.

Normalcy bias is the tendency, despite evidence to the contrary, to believe that nothing untoward is happening.  It’s a belief that no matter how bad things get, life will return to the normal state that we are accustomed to.

For some reason, people on the right seem to believe that the new restrictions on religious freedom, freedom of movement, and personal liberty will just somehow magically go away after the election.  The left is LITERALLY calling it the “new normal” but the right keeps saying “it’ll go back to normal”.  

The right is also of the ridiculous belief that once the election is over, if Donald Trump is re-elected, the left, who already demand his removal by force, will suddenly just become rational somehow and shrug their shoulders and return to Mom’s basement, casting aside all their dreams of a glorious Socialist revolution.


Normalcy bias.

The first step in defeating normalcy bias is awareness.  By raising your awareness, you’ll better understand what is happening.

Sam Culper at discusses conducting an Area Study, and it’s a great first step in raising your awareness of the local situation.

Use social media to your advantage by monitoring the accounts of activist groups in your area and see what they area saying and planning.  Either attend their events to actually listen and observe, or watch their livestreams.  This will open your eyes QUICKLY.  Personally, I get out and attend 3-4 of their events every single week because I want to see the things they don’t show on social media, such as their security posture, their awareness, their readiness for confrontation.  It’s eye-opening.  

Use a tool, like the BattleBoard Scout 4.0 ( to track on a map where protests are planned so that you can avoid them.  I have both a small and medium Scout.  I use one for map tracking, and one for note taking.

Take responsibility for your own safety.  We continue to see videos of cars getting trapped inside protests, which is totally avoidable.  This weekend, we saw ANTIFA/BLM people pull out firearms when vehicles refused to stop.  This is an escalation that should tell you that they are ready to kill for their cause.  I was heartened to see a video where people took the advice I give, which is flip a U-Turn and go the wrong way if you have to, but DON’T STOP in a crowd.

Understand that if you are trapped in a car inside a protest, or a building, as we saw at a Walgreens in Chicago on Sunday, and you call the police, the police will flat out tell you that they aren’t coming.

YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN.  That alone should get us off the couch and armed, but it hasn’t.  Normalcy bias, again.  “The police will come.”  No, they won’t

Use Cooper’s Color Codes to raise your awareness.

You should try to use Condition Yellow the majority of the time.  It’s easy, and can be maintained for long periods.

Condition Orange can be maintained for short periods without ill effects other than an increased heart rate.

You should NEVER find yourself in Condition Black, unless awoken from a dead sleep.

Lastly, stop underestimating the threat posed by leftist protestors.

In my post on the Battle of Ai, I discussed Joshua and his attack on the town of Ai.  In Joshua 7, he sent a recon team ahead to analyze the enemy positions.  This was a good idea, and it’s exactly what I’m doing by attending these events.  But in Joshua 7:3, his recon team reported that the opposition was weak, there weren’t that many of them, and they weren’t all that well trained.  They also reported that marching up the hill to the town would be too hard on the troops.  Any of this sound like excuses we’re making to not engage?  

Well, Joshua took their advice and only sent 3,000 of his men up instead of a larger force.  When they arrived, they were met by a large and well-trained force that completely routed Joshua’s men, who had to flee from the field of battle.  

Yes, Joshua eventually won (read my post “The Battle of Ai” for the whole story and tactical analysis), but the point is, he and his whole army under-estimated that forces arrayed against them and paid the price for it.  Learn from his lesson (HINT: That’s the entire point of the Bible).

Look, I know it’s easy to look at these screeching kids and laugh, or to look at the NFAC (Not Frightening Actually Clowns) Brigade and giggle, but don’t underestimate them.  If you are killed by an untrained amateur, you aren’t any less dead.

Uthred Ragnarson

As my hero Uthred Ragnarson warns: A Warrior can only die once, he must make it count.

In conclusion, stop thinking this is all going to go back to normal, take responsibility for your own safety, analyze the threat, raise your awareness, and stop under-estimating the opposition.

Train. Prepare.  Be safe.


Published by JD

I am the author of the Tactical Wisdom Series. I am a personal protection specialist and a veteran of the US Marine Corps. I conduct preparedness and self-defense training.

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